提筆再起

提筆再起

大家都可能會覺得奇怪，老雨前兩個月在返港前寫了一篇「以事論事」中，說將不會以時政為題，但為何上篇又在寫了「12月10日晚上...是香港最美麗的晚上還是最醜惡的晚上？」這篇有關佔中文章呢？

事緣老雨留港期間，除了與多位博友共聚及同行外，還探訪了幾位好朋友，其中也是一位博友；你們還記得懿如女士嗎？老雨在博客中認識她，將她和兒子的事跡寫了「人在闌珊處」，一個十集的短篇故事，但在實際生活上，老雨與懿如素未謀面，藉是次回港有幸能約得懿如，大家一談便幾個小時，意猶未盡。臨別時老雨說在返加前希望再能懿如女士再見面，希望能給懿如多一點精神支持。無奈大家都忙着，終於連一句道別也沒說，只是在登機前向她發了一個短訊。這是老雨回港的唯一憾事。尊重懿如的意願，「人在闌珊處」不會重刋，但代表關心懿如的一羣網上好朋友，老雨會寫「給懿如一封信」將日內在此寒博發表。如果大家關心懿如的話，可以先給一個回應，讓老雨集腋成裘，寫在信上給懿如一些支持和暖意。

同在香港期間，探訪了兒時一位同學，他自少努力讀書，是位老學究，任職大學教授；他的唯一兒子三十來歲，是位老師。兩父子因佔中問題意見分歧而吵起來，一向斯文有禮的儒家學者盛怒打了兒子一巴，跟着他為從來未打過兒子，這是第一次的掌摑心痛欲絕...他兒子去瞓街佔中去了。他們這個殘局看來比香港現時局面同樣不容易收拾，也可以看到佔中問題使社會和家庭撕裂有多大。不管你是天子門生滿腹經綸，或腰纏萬貫，還是目不識丁販夫走卒，貧無立錐，這種撕裂發生是難以彌補。或者，可以說是個遺害！一說佔中，很多人定會說誰誰誰是「首作俑者」，事必有因，如老雨上篇上載的影像訊息，應該可以說是香港政改僵局的其中一個因素，而循着各各因素成熟而誘發了佔中行為。在這廂，老雨不談單單香港在事件下的影响，而宏觀的看看中國對佔中此事，究竟中央政府對策是保護了、防範了什麼出現，而為何中央人大，香港特區政府由始至終立場會如此堅實，箇中原因是什麼？正惆悵着如果單由老雨這支筆去說明，世界、中國形勢影响而導致上面老雨所說，未必有說服力，剛巧找來了一篇BBC網頁，香港政府佔中清場後，在12月13日發表：

「Hong Kong Protests; Has Beijing Won? 」

Some say Xi Jinping has won in Hong Kong. I doubt if that's how he sees it.

As he watches pictures of traffic flowing through the heart of Admiralty today, he will certainly feel relieved that he didn't lose. But he is fighting a multi-level multi-player game. He has merely survived a level.

This is not to say he didn't play adroitly.

By leaving the protests to burn out amidst their own divisions and the weariness of the wider Hong Kong public, he deprived the umbrella movement of the oxygen of repression and demonstrated that Beijing's tool kit for dealing with citizen defiance runs beyond tanks or truncheons.

What's more, he made no concessions. The lesson that Beijing does not bow to pressure was delivered not just to Hong Kong but to the world.

But the only real victory Beijing can claim in the entire episode is not in Hong Kong but at home on the mainland where, barring a few brave souls who raised their voices on behalf of Hong Kong democracy, little stirred.

This is an important victory for the propaganda machine, which successfully presented the protesters as a mix of spoilt children narrowly pursuing their own interests at the expense of the public good, and cunning enemies of the state in league with foreign forces.

"Any person who cares about Hong Kong and about the people of Hong Kong should say 'NO' to this hijacking of the general public will for personal objectives," said the Communist Party flagship newspaper, the People's Daily.

Champions of democracy everywhere take note - the aspirations of the young protesters of Hong Kong did not immediately resonate with their counterparts on the mainland.

Despite being beneficiaries of globalisation and despite having ever greater contact with the West through university education and holidays abroad, many young Chinese are suspicious of idealistic political messages.

Since childhood, they have been exposed to a historical narrative which dwells on China's humiliation at the hands of foreigners.

Many now echo their government's suspicion of street protests, social chaos and foreign ideas peddled by people whose hidden agenda may be to divide China and keep it down.

According to China's best known military theorist, Sun Tzu (writing two-and-a-half thousand years ago), the best kind of victory is won without fighting.

Seeing the mainland stable throughout two-and-a-half months of street protest in Hong Kong is just such a victory.

But provoking thousands of citizens onto the streets in the first place is, by the same token, no kind of victory at all. Beijing brought the umbrella movement on itself.

With its white paper in June and electoral arrangements in August, it made clear that it would not only draw up a narrower political board game in Hong Kong but control the pieces too.

Hong Kong citizens were already resentful of the scale of mainland tourism and immigration, and the young alienated by a growing list of frustrations including impossible property prices.

In this combustible mix, Beijing's announcements were the proverbial sparks that lit the prairie fire.

Sun Tzu would have called this self-inflicted injury. The electoral arrangements were intended to avoid future challenges from an elected Hong Kong leader. But instead they provoked a very present challenge from at least 100,000 citizens.

For a government which likes to reinforce the impression that it is in charge of not just the staging but the script, Hong Kong was an uncomfortable discovery that the props can get up and misbehave.

Ever since Chairman Mao's ideological experiments resulted in the deaths of countless millions in the 1950s and 1960s, China's Communist leaders have insisted that they believe in "seeking truth from facts".

The sobering fact in relation to the Umbrella Movement is that a generation of young people in Hong Kong is increasingly politicised and alienated from China.

With their demand for democratic rights, the members of the umbrella movement effectively rebranded themselves "not China".

The same is true in Taiwan.

Despite all of Beijing's efforts to coax the island towards reunification, the message from recent local elections as well as from the Sunflower Movement in the spring is that the Taiwanese public and especially its young people, are moving in the opposite direction.

Far from assimilating easily to an increasingly wealthy China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are growing more defiant. And adding to the list of troublesome peripheries whose citizens can't be trusted to behave like true Chinese patriots, let's not forget Xinjiang.

So while Xi Jinping will go on talking up his China Dream and urging the young people of China to unite behind it, he must have realised by now that his message is struggling with key audiences.

Hong Kong has seen a generation of young people devote energy, passion and sacrifice into a competing dream. These are people he needs on his side. Xi Jinping may not have lost in Hong Kong, but he needs to do much, much more if he is going to win.

老雨的英文水平有限，很艱難才在同樣的網頁找到了中文譯本：

分析：香港抗議，北京贏了嗎？

凱瑞（Carrie Gracie）BBC中國總編輯  2014年 12月 13日

有人說習近平取得了在香港的勝利，我懷疑他是否會這麼看。

當他看到金鐘中心的交通恢復時，他肯定因為沒輸而感到放鬆。但他進行的是一個多層次、多選手的比賽，他僅打了個平手。這不是說他玩得不嫻熟。

贏了

讓抗議者在他們自己的分裂中以及在香港民眾的疲憊中消耗，他扼制了雨傘運動，展示了北京在應對公眾反抗時，除了坦克和棍棒之外還有別的工具。

此外，他沒有讓步。北京不會屈服於壓力的信息不僅傳遞給了香港，也告訴了世界。但是，北京在整個事件中真正的勝利不在香港，而在內地。除了少數勇敢的人為香港民主發聲外，內地幾乎波瀾不驚。這是宣傳機器的一個重要的勝利，成功地將抗議者描繪成被寵壞的孩子，為了自己的利益不顧公眾利益，此外還有外國勢力這狡猾敵人。

抗議最後一個主要的場地金鐘已被清。共產黨的大報《人民日報》說：「任何關心香港和香港市民的人都應該對這種為了個人目的而綁架公眾意志的做法說不。」

任何民主倡導者都注意到，香港的年輕抗議者的訴求沒有立即引起內地同胞的共鳴。儘管是全球化的受益者、儘管通過大學教育和海外旅遊與西方有了更多的接觸，很多年輕的中國人對理想的政治訴求持懷疑態度。從兒時起，他們接受的歷史敘述就是中國在外國人的手中遭受屈辱。很多人現在認同政府對街頭抗議、社會動亂持懷疑的態度，認為外國人試圖搞亂中國。抗議者將習近平的畫像打上雨傘運動的標記。中國最著名的軍事家孫子說，最好的勝利就是不戰而勝。面對香港街頭持續兩個半月的抗議，內地保持穩定，這就是一個勝利。

沒贏

但是，讓數千人走上了街頭，這本身又完全不是什麼勝利。北京自身導致了雨傘運動。六月的白皮書和八月份的選舉安排，明確表示了北京不僅要收緊香港這盤棋，而且要控制棋子。香港市民已經不滿內地的遊客和移民的湧入，加上不可企及的房價，年輕人感到更多的不滿。在這種易燃的氛圍中，北京作出的決定猶如火花，點燃了燎原之火。孫子也許會把這稱作自傷其身，北京做出的選舉安排旨在避免未來香港領導人提出挑戰的情況，但他們激起了至少十萬人的現時的挑戰。對一個喜歡強調自己控制台面和台詞的政府來說，香港讓他們不那麼舒服，因為這齣戲出現紕漏。

自從毛澤東在1950和1960年代的思想試驗造成數億百萬計的人死亡後，共產黨強調要實事求是。雨傘運動帶來的一個嚴峻事實是，香港的年輕一代越來越政治化、離中國疏遠。他們要求民主權利，雨傘運動的成員把他們標榜為「非中國」。在台灣也同樣如此。儘管北京試圖說服台灣走向統一，最近的台灣地方選舉以及春季的太陽花運動，都說明台灣民眾尤其似乎年輕人朝相反的方向走。香港和台灣並沒有與日益富裕的中國融合，而是變得更反抗，此外，不要忘了還有新疆。所以，當習近平繼續談中國夢，鼓勵年輕的中國人團結奮鬥時，他也意識到，關鍵的聽眾似乎沒有信服。

香港的年輕一代將他們的精力、熱忱和犧牲貢獻給另外一個夢，而這是習近平需要的人，他也許沒有在香港問題上輸掉，但如果真的要贏，他要做的還有很多。

（編譯：高毅）

有點太長了，看得有點累吧！

上文其實有幾個重點，這位BBC中國總編輯凱瑞女士，在報導分析寫得欲語還休，但寫出中國在世界形勢下對香港事務的决擇。香港不是高度自治的嗎？老雨以前經已分析過，：「高度自治是否可解釋為全面自治呢？見人見智，筆者淺見認為是不可能，如果能深入點讀讀基本法，就可以很容易發覺倪端。在基本法序言末端：[全國人民代表大會特制定中華人民共和國香港特别行政區基本法，规定香港特别行政區實行的制度，以保障國家對香港的基本方針政策的實施。]最後的一句是國家對香港實施方針政策，那香港又何來全面自治呢？」（見拙文「香港時政上的一些常識」）

中央怎會不知外國勢力針對中國的崛起，在能見的未來成為世界上第二大的經濟體，而很快亦會超越美國，所以凱瑞女士在文章中提及「此外還有外國勢力這狡猾敵人」一詞。如果中央不高度重視和控制香港政改的發展，凱瑞女士用了「贏了」和「沒贏」兩段，寫出中央關注的是香港佔中對中國國內十五億人民的影响，所以中央及香港特區政府三番四次的指出香港政改是關乎國家安全問題。當然凱瑞女士所說「習近平」是他領導的政府，「贏了」是指香港佔中之患消除了，但最重要的「贏」是國內中國民眾、最重要是有知識有抱負的學生沒有因受香港政改引發的問題而有反嚮，社會連一點民主訴求的漣漪都沒有出現，如常的穩定。

 

「未贏」是指香港的一國兩制模式，是給台灣看的示範單位，怎料住在這個單位部份住客，「香港的年輕一代越來越政治化、離中國疏遠。」這違背了示範單位的原則，「離中國疏遠」一詞更是可圈可點！中央最切齒的莫過的「台獨、疆獨、藏獨」，香港有人時「高度自治」演譯成「香港事香港理」「重奪政府」甚至帶英治殖民地旗衝中國駐軍軍營。全世界，別有用心的、沒有他想的人和國家，都有關注中國怎樣處理香港這個「壞孩子」。

 

好了，留一些思考空間給大家，也介紹一個影像訊息給大家看看，如果用民主與民生的角度去了解，或許能解答老雨所說中國國內由香港政改暴亂引發「社會連一點民主訴求的漣漪都沒有出現，如常的穩定」的疑團。

引用BBC文章

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30445930

http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/china/2014/12/141213_carrie_xi_hongkong_win_lose